Ditton Wine Traders’ fine wine blog

It won’t have escaped you that China has an extraordinary appetite for Lafite and anything with the five arrow label on it. We have sold hundreds of cases of Lafite and Carruades de Lafte, as well as Duhart Milon to China and HK in the last few months. Granted, this rush was the consequence of the Chinese New Year (started yesterday) and it remains to be seen if demand keeps up after this event, but we can’t help being puzzled about this singular focus on this particular First Growth.

Don’t get me wrong, Lafite is an amazing wine and its quality is right up there. I’m sure they do a fantastic job in marketing their brand, also in the Far East.  However, it seems to me this rather single minded focus on Lafite is unsustainable.

Now, Lafite is a large Chateau, producing roughly 50,0000 cases a year of the first wine and another 20,000 cases of Carruades. That’s a lot of wine and more than the other Chateaux produce. In spite of these big numbers, it becomes increasingly clear that sourcing Lafite, in France and in the UK, is becoming more and more difficult with an amazing amount of this wine going to Asia. As an expected result, the price increase of Carruades is nothing less than spectacular. The only 2007 release that was traded heavily and saw a hefty price increase was Carruades, going up from GBP 400 to 600. Every vintage older than 2006 now trades for more than GBP 1,000 for a case of 12/75cl, more than any other second wine and in some cases more than 50% of the price of the Grand Vin. 

It’s not just the increasing scarcity of Lafite that makes you wonder what’s next. It’s also the expectation that at some point, China and the rest of the Far East will wake up to the fact that there’s more than Lafite. China is notoriously bend on status, especially when giving presents and at the moment, Lafite is top notch in terms of "bling factor". However, as the Far East rapidly gets more educated about wine, we suspect they will start to pay more attention to critics scores rather than just the label. Or maybe just get a little bored with the Lafite brand.

And once that happens, obviously other wines will emerge as new status symbols. My guess is it will be just one, maybe two or three that will attract the attention, but certainly not every Bordeaux with a high score. This wine will likely still have enough "liquidity" to satisfy demand. It will also be a wine that will see a handsome return on investment once demand outstrips supply (even more than it already does).

Those with cash and an appetite for investment could be tempted to pre-empt the market and stock up on this dark horse. Fancy a gamble? Or rather, an educated gamble? On the basis of what you know of Wine and China, which First Growth do you think will be the next Lafite Rothschild? Or are we just plain wrong and is it Lafite and nothing else for years to come?

Let us know what you think and we will post a summary of your answers as well as our own views on this blog when we next update it. You can send your thoughts to info@dittonwinetraders.co.uk.