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14 April 2009Latour release their 2008 at 45% below 2007 prices
At last, action on the Primeurs front again! Latour is to be congratulated to be the first of the First Growths to release – pre Parker scores – and at a bold price. They released at €110 a bottle, 45% below the 2007 release price. Bordeaux Negociants sold on at €130, the best price in London was €148 a bottle.
This is indeed the widely asked for drop in prices. In fact, the 2008 vintage is now the cheapest on the market. Have a look at this:
| Latour | ||
| vintage | price ex London | Parker |
| 2008 | £1,600 | ? |
| 2007 | £2,200 | 90-93 |
| 2006 | £3,500 | 95 |
| 2005 | £7,500 | 96 |
| 2004 | £2,000 | 95 |
| 2003 | £5,850 | 100 |
| 2002 | £2,100 | 96 |
| 2001 | £2,000 | 95 |
| 2000 | £6,750 | 98 |
| 1999 | £1,950 | 94 |
| 1998 | £1,700 | 90 |
| 1997 | £1,800 | 89 |
| 1996 | £4,700 | 99 |
| 1995 | £3,000 | 96 |
| 1994 | £1,800 | 94 |
| 1993 | £1,500 | 90 |
| 1992 | £1,700 | 88 |
| 1991 | £1,800 | 89 |
| 1990 | £5,400 | 96 |
2008 is definitely better than 2007. My best guess is that it will be scored 95+ by Parker. If that’s the case, 2008 will be £400 a case cheaper than any other vintage scoring 95 or better. If scored at 96, 2008 will, in the long run, be a steal. That is, if prices will go up again. There is of course the question what this price will do with the prices of back vintages. One could support the view that recent vintages like 2007, 2006 and 2004 will drop in price. Maybe, but in my view only in the short run, if that. I think it’s more likely that 2008 will go up.
One argument to support that view is that it is increasingly clear that Latour only released a very small quantity in this tranche. All UK major merchants sold out within hours. Moreover, it would be the sensible approach for Latour: release fast, ahead of the pack and assuming the pricing responsibility that everybody was demanding of the First Growths. But only release a little, creating scarcity and a small panic amongst punters that they might loose out if not acting fast. After that, with demand created, the options are much more attractive: release subsequent tranches at a higher price or even wait until the economic climate has turned. Latour is in the lucky position they can do that – cash flow permits it (unlike a lot of the 2nd -5th growths).
So should you buy? If you buy to drink: for sure, Latour is on splendid form and you’d pick it up at a better price than has been possible for years. To invest? Probably, but I’m not sure. I’d like to know how much was released before answering that question. You can however work out your approximate return on investment by looking at the above price table (ignoring storage and interest cost).
More to follow I presume and hope, this week. If Lafite comes out at similar prices, I’m buying!
