Robert Parker's always revisits his initial scores for a new vintage, usually called the ”in-bottle scores”. Only nobody ever knows when.

It never ceases to amaze me how much power this man has over the wine world. It’s actually quite hilarious. These reviews are important for the trade as it can cause big shifts in prices. So everybody is on his toes at around the time that Parker normally updates his scores (Feb-April). And when the oracle finally speaks, traders are falling over each other to get their hands on any wine that has received an upgrade, resulting in a rather hectic morning. I personally got tens of emails and phone calls asking if my Lafite ’06 is still available at the now very cheap price of £3,200. And a few hours later, normality has returned again – with new price levels. Quite bizar.

Anyway, the revised scores for the Bordeaux 2006 vintage were released Thursday night, with a number of wines receiving significant upgrades on their en primeur score ranges. Courtesy from my friends at Liv-ex, I have stolen this little overview:

As you can see, the big winner is Lafite, now scoring 97 (previously 91-94+) and also a point higher than the far more expensive 2005. Other notable upgrades include Haut Brion with 96 points (92-94+ range) and Ausone with 98 points (95-97 range). In general, wines hit the top end of their original ranges, although none of the potential 100-point wines hit the magic three figures. The score for La Mission Haut Brion (95, was 96-100) is one of the few big names receiving a lower score.

Finally, what we already expected proves true: Mouton’s is the wine of the vintage with 98+: " A sensational effort...utterly profound...clearly the greatest Mouton produced since 1982 and 1986". A potential 100 pointer.

As an afterthought: we list 2 lovely cases of Mouton '86 – a proven 100 pointer with a wide and loyal following – at GBP 4,600. This looks decidedly cheap compared to the 2006 at GBP 5,000.....  

With the somewhat opportunistic title "Bordeaux – wine boom may be over", Decanter has published an interesting article on their website. In the article, several people indicate that this might indeed be the case. To use the words of Cesar Compadre, 'The speculative bubble of Bordeaux's great wines is currently exploding,' Cesar Compadre, wine journalist for regional newspaper Sud-Ouest told decanter.com. 'It's the end of the Belle Epoque.'  To quote further, Simon Staples of London wine retailer Berry Bros & Rudd also believed there was 'huge pressure' on the negociants. He said the market was in a fragile position. 'All it needs is a chateau or a negociant to go bust and it all crumbles,' he added.

As with the wider economy, Bordeaux is having a difficult spell. The 2005 en primeur campaign filled the bankaccount nicely, 2006 and to a larger extent 2007 did not. It's impossible to say how much of a buffer the Chateaux and especially the negociants have, but is is clear that lower demand and lower prices do have a big negative effect. And with the banks being in the state they are, credit lines are not available easily, so there's not much of a safety net.
 

The 2008 en primeur campaign might add to the woes. It's highly unlikely this will be a cash cow for the Chateaux nor for the Negociants. Unless prices are dropped to the point where merchants and the public think it's actually cheap (2004 price levels?), volume will be (very) low.

So, the outlook is a bit grim. But does this mean it's the end of the Belle Epoque? Will we see a Chateau crumble? I don't think so. Certainly none of the famous chateaux will go bust and even if one were, there would be queues of buyers. Imagine, Haut Brion up for sale! I do think prices will be rather more modest in 2009 and – unless there will be another great vintage – will probably remain that way during the economic turmoil. However, the fundamentals are still intact. Wine is still a great investment as demand will continue to outstrip supply, as long as one sticks to the top, trophy wines. In fact, the smart money is now going into wine again, profiting from much lower prices and in some cases, very favourable exchange rates.

We might see a negociant go under and I also expect some of the wine merchants to fold. Is that a bad thing? No. A more challenging environment weeds out the less well run companies who have only been allowed to exist grace to the easy conditions. The survivors then have it easier and might actually use such a window of time to their advantage, building their business to be in pole position when the economy turns again. As it always does, also the micro Fine Wine economy.