Who said Bordeaux wine prices were grossly inflated? That they would make a bad investment in the current financial climate? That 2008 needed to be priced at 2004, if not 2002 levels in order to sell?

I guess most of the wine critics and the trade are guilty as charged. The Bordelais said it was not so – 2008 was a good, a very good vintage. Better than 2006 and close to 2005. Nobody believed them as the weather wasn't favorable and after all, the Bordelais always talk up any new vintage (if it's not "great", than at least it's "classic").

Robert Parker has proven all of us wrong and the Bordeaux right.He has just released his scores on his website, as well as an admirably thorough report on the vintage. It's a huge surprise. Where I thought I was at risk of being too optimistic when I predicted here that Lafite would score 94-95 points, it actually is the wine of the vintage at a stunning 98-100 points. Petrus equals this score (Pomerol has done very well on the whole). Trotanoy and Ausone are the only other wines that score a potential 100 points (96-100).

Parker describes the Lafite as follows: "The 2008 Lafite Rothschild is one of the most profound young wines I have ever tasted. From a taster’s perspective, it is reminiscent of a blend of the 1996 and 2003, but when you compare those vintages analytically, that makes no sense whatsoever. Representing only 40% of the production, this blend of 83% Cabernet Sauvignon, 13% Merlot, and 4% Cabernet Franc boasts an opaque ruby/purple color (one of the darkest Lafites I have seen in 30 years) as well as an extraordinary, blockbuster aromatic profile of lead pencil shavings, forest floor, black fruits, licorice, and a hint of unsmoked, high-class cigar tobacco. In the mouth, a massive richness is accompanied by a freshness, delineation, nuance, delicacy, and mind-boggling density. Even after three decades of tasting, I am still astonished when tasting such a prodigious wine as this. Full, inky, and rich with creme de cassis and spice box characteristics as well as a length that I stopped measuring after a minute, the wine reveals a sweetness to the tannin and an opulence to the fruit that suggests a hot, sunny vintage, but again, that was not the case. There wasn’t a great deal of heat, but there was more sunshine than the negative press reported at the beginning of September. This is a great, great wine. The harvest at Lafite took place between October 1-7 for the Merlot grapes, the Cabernet Franc was picked in mid-October, and the Cabernet Sauvignon between October 7-14 – an unbelievably late harvest for this estate. This wine should evolve for 30-40 years and last 50 or more. As I have indicated before, Lafite’s second wine is now one of Bordeaux’s finest second wines, and is made very much in the Lafite style.

Interestingly, Lafite Rothschild’s manager, Charles Chevalier, told me there was not much flavor in the grapes in mid-September, but a month later, after four weeks of extraordinary weather, they believed something profound may have happened given the flavor development. Again, the historically long period between flowering and harvest, and very low yields are part of the secret to the great success of wines such as this"

Now, this threw the secondary market. Interestingly, Parker released his score at about 10:30 pm UK time. Yet as early as 5 pm, prices suddenly jumped by 20% or so. Clearly some people were in the know. As much as I hate to say this, such a sudden increase can't just be down to speculation on imminent Parker scores – some people, somewhere must have had more than an inkling. Priced at GBP 1,900 Lafite was suddenly an absolutely steal with the 1998 (the next comparable vintage scored at 98 points) selling at GBP 3,750.

Parker compares 2008 to other vintages: "In short, the vintage is vastly superior to 2007, 2006, 2004, 2003 (with some exceptions in that unusual vintage), 2002, 2001, and 1999". In other words,2008 is in the top 3 of the last 10 years. Wow. I bet you didn't expect that and I certainly didn't.

These scores will spark a lot of discussion. For starters, how about Lafite '05 scoring 96 points (and selling at GBP 6,200) and Lafite '08 scoring 98-100? Food for thought and for a future blog posting.

Some other notable scores: Pontet Canet 96-98+ They are on fire, basically having the same terroir as Mouton Rothschild does but selling at a fraction of the price. Duhart Milon 93-95, on par with the '05 (94 points and about time their prices catch up with Carruades de Lafite). Overall, there are no less than 53 wines scoring 95+.

As a final thought, there still are Chateaux that haven't released yet. Amongst them Petrus (96-100), Leoville Lascases (95-97+), Pavie (96-98+), Ausone (96-100), Cheval Blanc (95-97). Will they take advantage and release at much higher prices than their peers, or will they also take their responsibility -  as the first growths did -  in kick-starting the campaign by releasing at significantly lowered prices? In either case, tomorrow will see a scrambling to get hold of the best scoring '08's, rather unexpectedly...

Sunday the 26th of April and all the First Growths have released their 2008’s, just 2 weeks after the barrel tastings have taken place. I can’t remember a year that has seen such a short campaign. Sure, not all Chateaux have released yet -  the biggest names being Petrus, Cheval Blanc, Ausone, Yquem, Cos d’Estournel, Leoville Lascases – but most big names have. Interestingly and contrary to the rule, these releases have been made before Robert Parker has published his scores. How refreshing by the way that for once, Chateaux have had the balls not to wait for the big oracle to speak.

The top 5 have released at very decent prices, generally about 45% down on last year. The notable exception is Haut Brion, who chose to release at Euro 125 a bottle where Latour, Lafite and Margaux opened at Euro 110 a bottle (ex Chateaux). It appears the First Growths have listened to the demands of the trade, particularly the very vocal UK merchants, to drastically reduce prices. The first signs I have seen suggest demand for the First Growths has been healthy. Indeed, the secondary market for particularly Lafite and Latour sees these wines trade at a 60% premium compared to the ex Chateau release price.

However, trading volume and price increases are not shared across the board. Indeed, pretty much all wines don’t see much activity at all on the secondary market. Anything but the First Growths, even with price reductions of 20%+, run the risk of not being taken up "en primeur", not to mention being traded on the secondary market. It seems 2008, a very decent vintage according to the critics, will only sell if priced below any existing vintage and then only if it’s a big name. Lafite 2008 (amongst others), at GBP 1,600 ex UK, is the cheapest vintage on the market by about GBP 500 a case. Sure enough, that brings speculators in, driving the price up to GBP 1,900 a case. The same holds true of Latour. But traditionally big sellers like Lynch Bages and Leoville Barton are being offloaded at pretty much cost.

So, the 2008 campaign to date has not been a big success. It’s better than feared, but worse than hoped for after the big drops in price. What I find most peculiar is that many Chateaux have yet to release whilst the big hitters already have. I think those Chateaux that still need to release run a real risk of being overlooked now that all 5 First Growths have already played their cards. Perhaps they are waiting for the Parker scores? (said to be due on the 30th of April). Or, maybe, they will  not release at all and wait until the economic climate has improved.

The First Growths have played the game very cleverly. They came out at good prices and they released a decent proportion of their stock in the "first tranche". This has created demand, also in the secondary market. A subsequent tranche can therefore be released at a higher price. Pretty much all other Chateaux however will struggle selling, partly because they just can’t afford to discount as much as the First Growths and partly because demand this year explicitly focusses on the very top names. This inevitably will lead to financial stress, either at the Chateaux and/or the Bordeaux Negociants.  

As a consumer, 2008 is very interesting. It’s a good to very good vintage, probably comparable to 2001, 2004 and certainly better than 2002 and 2007. There are lots of wines in 2008 that you can buy at a price cheaper than ANY mature vintage. When was the last time you could buy Lafite at GBP 130 a bottle? Lynch Bages at GBP 22 a bottle? Is it enough to make people buying? I can’t answer that question with a resounding yes. I suspect you’d do very well buying a First Growth at these prices – either for drinking or investment purposes – given that it’s the cheapest vintage in the market, but there’s too much uncertainty in the market at the moment to create big demand for anything but the big names.

My advise is to buy Lafite, Carruades de Lafite and Latour if you can and wait to see what happens before committing to buying any of the other ones. Chances are there will be plenty of opportunities to get some of those at similar prices nearer to their drinking window.

Late Thursday afternoon and Lafite has also released. The price is the same as Latour at EURO 130. Duhart Milon has been released at EURO 22. Both prices are ex the Bordeaux Negociants. For some reason, Carruades de Lafite has been held back for now. I’m buying heavily into Lafite, Carruades and Duhart Milon, I think it’s an almost sure bet.

I must say I'm pleasantly surprised and quite impressed with Lafite for releasing at the same price as Latour did. I have commented on the popularity of Lafite before, last in my blogpost of 24th of January. There is just an extraordinary demand from Asia for Lafite, much more so than for Latour. Just how much more shows below table:

When you recall my blogpost of 2 days ago, on Latour, it's very apparent that all Lafite vintages pre 2004 command a much higher price than Latour. This is totally due to the demand from Asia. It's remarkable that you can't get a mature Lafite, say older than 2000, for less than GBP 2,800 – even for mediocre vintages like '94/'93/'92/'91. Compare that to Latour, which in those vintages you can buy for between GBP 1,500 and 1,800. Moreover, it's sheer impossible to find any older Lafite anymore.

Coming back to 2008, again it's the cheapest vintage on the market. Forgetting about 2007 (a dead fish in the water), 2008 is more than 30% cheaper than any other vintage of Lafite. With availability of Lafite rapidly decreasing (the Chinese buy to drink, not to invest) and with Uncle Bob Parker likely to score the 2008 at 94-95 points (my best guess), it's only a matter of time that you will see a return of 30+ %. Moreover, I see signs that Asia is starting to buy En Primeur, which would only decrease the time before young vintages increase in price.

For those of you who are not entirely familiar with the workings of En Primeur campaigns, please note that Chateaux release their production in tranches. The first one (this one) being the cheapest. I predict that the next tranche, which I think will be released May/June, will already be 20-25% higher. Nice return for a 1-2 month investment... To conclude, if it wasn't already clear, I am buying as much Lafite as I can.

Forgive me for the financial take in this post: when you buy to drink, I'd say pick up a few bottles because it's unlikely you will be able to enjoy Lafite at a similar price.

At last, action on the Primeurs front again! Latour is to be congratulated to be the first of the First Growths to release – pre Parker scores – and at a bold price. They released at €110 a bottle, 45% below the 2007 release price. Bordeaux Negociants sold on at €130, the best price in London was €148 a bottle.

This is indeed the widely asked for drop in prices. In fact, the 2008 vintage is now the cheapest on the market. Have a look at this:

2008 is definitely better than 2007. My best guess is that it will be scored 95+ by Parker. If that’s the case, 2008 will be £400 a case cheaper than any other vintage scoring 95 or better. If scored at 96, 2008 will, in the long run, be a steal. That is, if prices will go up again. There is of course the question what this price will do with the prices of back vintages. One could support the view that recent vintages like 2007, 2006 and 2004 will drop in price. Maybe, but in my view only in the short run, if that. I think it’s more likely that 2008 will go up.

One argument to support that view is that it is increasingly clear that Latour only released a very small quantity in this tranche. All UK major merchants sold out within hours. Moreover, it would be the sensible approach for Latour: release fast, ahead of the pack and assuming the pricing responsibility that everybody was demanding of the First Growths. But only release a little, creating scarcity and a small panic amongst punters that they might loose out if not acting fast. After that, with demand created, the options are much more attractive: release subsequent tranches at a higher price or even wait until the economic climate has turned. Latour is in the lucky position they can do that – cash flow permits it (unlike a lot of the 2nd -5th growths).

So should you buy? If you buy to drink: for sure, Latour is on splendid form and you’d pick it up at a better price than has been possible for years. To invest? Probably, but I’m not sure. I’d like to know how much was released before answering that question. You can however work out your approximate return on investment by looking at the above price table (ignoring storage and interest cost).

More to follow I presume and hope, this week. If Lafite comes out at similar prices, I’m buying!

I just returned from a lovely week's holidays in the south of Spain. Expecting to come back to a lot of wine news, I was surprised to see it has been very quiet. I hoped to see some more Bordeaux En Primeurs releases, but after Angelus, nothing has happened really. The release of top St Emilion Angelus was newsworthy though. Normally they are one of the very last to release, this year they were the first, immediately after the tastings had finished. More importantly, at GBP 725 (UK price), they have dropped the price by 40% when compared to 2007 and at that price level, it is more than GBP 100 cheaper than any other vintage. That's encouraging, although I don't believe it has been selling like crazy. 

I thought I'd take advantage of the lull in activity by sharing some info on Ditton Wine Traders. We have just ended our Financial Year – a good time to take stock of what we have been trading. Here's the top 10 (wine):

You can see that at positions 1, 2 and 7, Lafite dominate sales. This reflects the state of the market, where exports to Asia are strong and demand from UK merchants and consumers is slower than last year. As you might be aware, any wine from Domaines de Baron de Rothschild is very sought after in China. It is the ultimate status symbol and Carruades – the second wine of Lafite – is better regarded than say Mouton Rothschild. Looking at price/quality, this is a bizar situation as pretty much any vintage of Carruades pre 2006 sells at prices similar to some of the cheaper vintages of Mouton, a far better wine.

The champagne market has taken a bit of a hit. Worldwide champagne exports have seen a dramatic shift, as commented on in my blogpost of March 16. In the UK, we have been selling far less champagne in the last 6 months than pre credit crunch. It's just not "done" at the moment – even if you do have the money – to be seen spraying expensive large bottles of Cristal in trendy London clubs, where believe it or not, a lot of the expensive bottles ended up. These are our best selling champagnes in March '08 – Feb '09:

In terms of total sales, it has been a very exciting year. Very happy return customers and a host of new ones have resulted in us doubling turnover. More importantly in the longer run, we have fought ourselves a modest position amongst the UK wine trade, slowly moving from the new and unknown kid on the block to being well regarded and established wine traders.

I have also been developing the website, introducing this blog and adding some features. The latest addition is a "share this" button.

It's a very handy little application, that makes sharing what you see on this website very simple. You can choose to use email, add to your blog or post to your social networking site. In addition to the previously added RSS functionality, we hope this will help us to reach more and more people that are interested in Fine Wine.

Twitter is taking the world by storm. Many of us didn't see the point of this social networking application, but more and more do now. By sending little 140 character messages, an estimated 5 million people (and growing at a very fast rate since the start of this year) are informing their network of, well, just about anything. You can "connect" to people to see their "tweets" or you can use some add-on applications like Tweetdeck, that allow you to search for any keyword that you are interested in. This is an open search, so anytime a tweet with your keyword comes up, the search column catches and stores it for you to peruse at your convenience.

One of the attractions of Twitter is that it allows people to comment on what they are doing and their followers see it real time. One of the people I follow is Lance Armstrong – an active tweeter (sorry, I didn't come up with this word but I guess it's better than twit). He recently broke his collarbone while in a race in Spain. I knew about it when he was still in the ambulance. Another now famous example is of a skiier who fell of a cliff and, badly hurt, tried to communicate via Twitter where he was. His followers than organized a rescue party which did find him (too late, alas).

Why is this relevant and why are you reading this on a wine blog? Because there are more and more wineprofessionals on Twitter and they use it to inform us. At the moment, there are loads of them in Bordeaux to taste the Primeurs. Quite a few of them are using Twitter to tell us what they think of the wines they taste and some of them do it while in the tasting room or on leaving the chateau. Speed in this case is not saving lives, but if you want to be informed and you want to be informed ahead of the crowd, this is great stuff. You don't even need to be near your laptop as you can also have the tweets send to your mobile.

If you like this, I suggest you drop me an email at mark@dittonwinetraders.co.uk and I will tell you which winetweeters are worth following. You can also connect to me on Twitter: @DittonWineTrade and see who I follow, but that's just a bit more work since I follow about 250 people. But you would of course see my activity on Twitter.