Ditton Wine Traders’ fine wine blog

From the moment the grapes were picked last year, the hype has begun. For a change, the very high expectations seem justified because the weather conditions were absolutely perfect. A while ago, I found this very refreshing article - which I haven taken from the website of Jancis Robinson - that just states the naked facts. Judging by these facts, conditions have indeed been very favourable if not exceptional. Although to be fair, whether that translates into superb wines depends on the individual winemaker, as Decanter points out: there seems to be a risk of over-extraction. Nonetheless, chateaux, critics and even the wine trade are very positive, some even saying that, in 50 years they haven't seen better quality grapes.

On the Decanter "Bordeaux" microsite, you will find a wealth of information on the quality of the 2009 vintage, so I won't elaborate on it here. Instead, let's have a look at demand, at prices, at availability and ultimately, at a possible buying strategy.

Of course, we have a vested interest in the campaign. We are wine traders, we sell en primeur and we do have very good allocations of the top wines. Indeed, if you consider buying 2009 en primeur and want to do so at fair prices, we do advise you to talk to us and to follow the progress of the campaign on this blog www.dittonwinetraders.co.uk/blog.asp.

First, let's look at demand. Buying en primeur is always popular, unless it's a bad vintage or there's a lot of economic uncertainty. Last year, we had both: the wine critics were critical and uncertainty – in the midst of the worst economic downturn we have seen seen since 1945 -  was so high that many thought there wouldn't be an en primeur campaign at all. Consequently, Chateaux released at historically very low prices (110 euro's). And even those prices didn't start a buying spree, not until Robert Parker released his extremely high scores.

2009 will be different. The economic climate is much more benign and – importantly – less uncertain. Secondly, there is universal acclaim for 2009. Thirdly, Asia is starting to warm to buying en primeur, more so than ever before. I can go on and state a few more differences, but this is quite enough.  The conclusion: demand will be much higher than 2008.

Consequently, prices will be much higher as well. In 2008, most of the first growths released at 110 euro a bottle or 1,500 sterling a case ex London. No chance whatsoever we will see anything close to that. There's much talk about release prices for the first growths being similar to 2005, which was roughly 4,000 euro per case. The first trade at Liv-ex – a reliable gauge for UK prices – was 3,600 sterling. Nobody knows at this point and the economic situation might change, but I think 330 euro a bottle is the maximum Bordeaux can get away with. At that price, there will be buyers (we have quite a few orders at that level already) although it won't be a sell out. Personally, I believe release should not exceed 250 euros per bottle. That would be more than twice the 2008 level, which I feel is a fair level. And if release is at that price, demand will be massive.

There is one massive "but": Parker's scores. If Robert Parker scores in line with expectations, there is no but and all is fine. If he doesn't, the campaign might loose momentum. There is a very interesting dilemma for Mr Parker: he scored 2008 so high that, mathematically, there's hardly room to improve on for the 2009 vintage. For a more detailed analysis on this dilemma, see www.dittonwinetraders.co.uk/blogArchive.asp?mo=4&yr=2009

On to availability. In 2008, it was relatively easy to purchase what you wanted. Even on the first "tranche", there wasn't a massive scrambling – although that changed dramatically when Parker released. Still, it was only a handful of wines that leapt in price: Lafite, Carruades and to a lesser extend Latour. I expect 2009 to be different. Presuming pricing will not exceed GBP 2,600 ( euro 220 per bottle) for the first growths, demand will exceed supply. But, we think this will only hold true for Lafite, Mouton and possiby Latour. For those you would do very well to fulfil your order on the first tranche.

So, what would be a successful buying strategy? If prices are around GBP 2,500:  buy. You should buy at first tranch if you can. Concentrate on Lafite, Carruades, Duhart Milon, Mouton Rothschild and possibly Latour. If you can get allocation at first tranch, buy as much as you can. The Barons Rothschild wines and quite likely Mouton as well, will be worth picking up at second tranche.

That is, if you are investing. If you're buying to drink, 2009 looks to be worth it – provided prices stay within the stated range. Just buy your personal favourites - 2009 will be a very good if not truly exceptional vintage.