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30 January 2010The one to watch: Duhart Milon

It's not your traditional investment wine. It's not even new that it receives a lot of attention. So why is this the one wine that I would recommend investing in right now?

Back in May last year, I wrote a post on our blog about Duhart Milon. I argued that it would become the next big thing after Carruades de Lafite. Here's what I wrote:

Duhart Milon, the next Carruades de Lafite?

I think it should be. There are compelling reasons for Duhart Milon to eclipse Carruades de Lafite as the next best thing that Domaine Barons Rothschild, the maker of Lafite has to offer.

What these four wines (the 4th one is L'Evangile) have in common is that they are all produced by Domaines Barons Rothschild. As such, they all bear the famous 5-arrow Rothschild family crest.

These 5 arrows are a bit of gold dust. As I'm sure you are aware of, China absolutely loves Lafite. It's the ultimate status symbol. Why this is so, nobody really knows as is apparent from Jancis Robinsons entertaining article "The Legend of Lafite". In its wake, everything else produced by Lafite basks in the same sunlight. Carruades de Lafite – a nice wine but judging by Robert Parker nothing particularly special – has reached extraordinary pricelevels, as it is considered the "Petit Lafite". With most mature vintages priced at GBP 1,200+, Carruades is as expensive as some vintages of Mouton Rothschild and Haut Brion, both first growths. Remember, Carruades is not part of the Bordeaux Crus Classes classification of 1855. As such, it is remarkable that it commands prices on par with some of the First Growths. As mentioned, the reason for this is because it bears the 5 arrow Lafite family crest.

Lafite produce more wines that are in demand in China: Caro from Argentina – a joint venture with the famous Catena family and Los Vascos from Chile are the ones that get most demand from Asia. There's also l'Evangile, a famous Pomerol priced accordingly, as you can see in above table. 

And then there's Duhart Milon. Easily outscoring Carruades and, especially since 2002 at least as good as l'Evangile, Duhart Milon is much cheaper than both of them. To me it seems Duhart Milon has so far been overlooked by the Asian market. And I think this is about to change, for 4 reasons: One, as China becomes more and more educated about wine, they will pay more and more attention to critics reviews and less to labels. Duhart having higher scores than Carruades, this should shift attention to Duhart Milon. Two, Carruades de Lafite is very dificult to find, now that a very sizeable chunck of production has been bought up by Asia. Three, I have recently been selling more and more Duhart Milon, indicating that demand is picking up. And finally (four) Duhart Milon does also bear the 5 arrow crest.

One last thought: Robert Parker actually scored the Duhart Milon 2008 at 93-95+. Does this best vintage since 2000 look like a good deal to you?

Back to January 2010. In May last year, I also included a table, comparing prices and scores between these 4 wines. Below, you will find the same table and an update on current prices.

 MAY 2009                            
Lafite Rothschild   Carruades de Lafite   l'Evangile   Duhart Milon
Vintage Parker Price   Vintage Parker Price   Vintage Parker Price   Vintage Parker Price
2000 100 £9,500   2000 90 £1,500   2000 96 £1,600   2000 90 £550
2001 94 £2,350   2001 87 £1,200   2001 91 £635   2001 89 £410
2002 94 £2,300   2002 87 £1,200   2002 90 £600   2002 89 £370
2003 100 £6,250   2003 93 £1,300   2003 88 £650   2003 92 £500
2004 95 £2,400   2004 90 £1,300   2004 93 £640   2004 91 £400
2005 96 £6,200   2005 89 £1,300   2005 95 £2,150   2005 94 £430
2006 97 £3,200   2006 90 £925   2006 93 £940   2006 92 £300
2007 91.5 £2,000   2007 84 £600   2007 89 £790   2007 87 £250
2008 99 £3,200   2008 92 £695   2008 94 £635   2008 94 £300
                             
 JANUARY 2010                          
Lafite Rothschild   Carruades de Lafite   l'Evangile   Duhart Milon
Vintage Parker Price   Vintage Parker Price   Vintage Parker Price   Vintage Parker Price
2000 100 £14,000   2000 90 £2,200   2000 96 £1,600   2000 90 £900
2001 94 £4,800   2001 87 £2,000   2001 91 £720   2001 89 £450
2002 94 £4,800   2002 87 £2,000   2002 90 £625   2002 89 £500
2003 100 £7,500   2003 93 £1,900   2003 88 £650   2003 92 £480
2004 95 £4,400   2004 90 £1,850   2004 93 £640   2004 91 £480
2005 96 £7,500   2005 89 £1,850   2005 95 £1,800   2005 94 £600
2006 97 £4,200   2006 90 £1,800   2006 93 £900   2006 92 £400
2007 91.5 £3,500   2007 84 £1,600   2007 89 £800   2007 87 £380
2008 99 £4,800   2008 92 £1,450   2008 94 £680   2008 94 £500
                             
PERCENTUAL INCREASE                        
Lafite Rothschild   Carruades de Lafite   l'Evangile   Duhart Milon
Vintage Parker Price   Vintage Parker Price   Vintage Parker Price   Vintage Parker Price
2000 100 47%   2000 90 47%   2000 96 0%   2000 90 64%
2001 94 104%   2001 87 67%   2001 91 13%   2001 89 10%
2002 94 109%   2002 87 67%   2002 90 4%   2002 89 35%
2003 100 20%   2003 93 46%   2003 88 0%   2003 92 -4%
2004 95 83%   2004 90 42%   2004 93 0%   2004 91 20%
2005 96 21%   2005 89 42%   2005 95 -16%   2005 94 40%
2006 97 31%   2006 90 95%   2006 93 -4%   2006 92 33%
2007 91.5 75%   2007 84 167%   2007 89 1%   2007 87 52%
2008 99 50%   2008 92 109%   2008 94 7%   2008 94 67%

The price increase for especially Lafite and Carruades is spectacular. Duhart Milon has also done very well, Evangile (as expected) hasn't. Fueled by continuing demand from China, all vintages of Lafite are now well over £4,000 (except 2007) whereas you can't get Carruades below £1,600. The only exception there is 2008, which I'm convinced will increase to well over £1,600 once it will become physically available, in September.

I must admit I didn't expect Carruades to get this expensive. It might still continue to increase but it would seem the upside is now limited. The opposite is true of Duhart Milon. It has taken a while for demand to increase to the point it's really driving up prices, but that process has now begun. Duhart has taken off and both Asian customers and the trade are piling into it.

Duhart Milon has a very similar label to Carruades and Lafite. It is the better wine and given that Duhart is still only 1/4 to a 1/3 of the price of Carruades, it does look a bargain. Now that demand has increased so much, supply quickly dries out and prices have but one way to go...

 

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