Ditton Wine Traders’ fine wine blog

Intel is not conclusive. Some say he will release on the 30th (Friday), some say Tuesday (late in the evening UK time) and some even say tonight...

This year, timing won’t be as crucial as it was last year. This time, none of the big names have released yet whereas last year, all of them had and consequently speed was of the essence in snapping up the high scorers at pre-Parker prices. This year the main effect will hopefully be that we see more, bigger names release. So far, it has been a rather long campaign without too much happening in terms of releases.

With Parker scores out of the way, we will have the total picture of all the critics. In theory, the Chateaux could then release en bloc. They won’t though as they will want to get as much info on the maximum prices they can receive as possible. And apparantly, that includes first hand information on Asian take up – to be obtained during Vinexpo in HK, the last week of May.

Speaking of prices, the estimates for the first growths are all over the place, ranging from 200 euro a bottle on release to 1,000 euro a bottle by the end of the summer. Sadly, there’s a lot of hype so prices will be very high. The first tranche hopefully not so much so, but each subsequent tranche will be higher until demand stops. It goes without saying that getting in at first tranche will be key, but will also be extremely difficult. Here’s the way to do it:

1) you have bought first growths and preferrably other wines as well, in previous vintages. Loyalty throughout the whole chain will be rewarded.

2) you are prepared to buy across the board and not just the gems – this is what the merchants have to do as well. That means including wines that are not on everybody’s list and particularly wines that the Chateaux "push". For example, Lafite will only allow Negociants to take Lafite if they also take Rieussec and Evangile. Mouton will oblige Negociants to buy Clerc Milon, Armailhac and even Baron Arques. Of course, you don’t have to but it would certainly put you in prime position if you would.

3) you are willing to send us a your wishlist – including quantities and ceiling prices – so we can immediately fulfill your "order" once released. We will add these wines to our own wish list and send them to the Negociants prior to release.

4) you are willing to pre-order. After payment of a deposit of 20%, you will get priority over customers that send just a wish list.

If you don’t manage to get in at first tranche, don’t despair. In exceptional vintages like these, prices will continue to rise over time. There’s still investment potential if you get in a later tranches. Bear in mind that Lafite 2008 is still being bought for investment, even though current prices are 4 times the first tranche price. One word of caution though, both to customers and Chateaux: the sky is NOT the limit. You should not pay silly prices, hoping they will continue to go up. Take the 2005 vintage, where prices started to fall after the initial demand had been satisfied and it then took until only recent for prices to get back to their previous highs. This is a real danger for 2009 as well. There is an awful lot of demand to be satisfied at the start. Correction, make that orders to be fulfilled. Once that demand falters and fails to prop up prices any longer, we could well see prices fall for a while.

Once Parker has released his scores, I intend to post our buy list on this blog. These will be wines that a) are always in demand, b) have received good scores, c) will help us secure our allocations and finally, d) have proven to be a good investment when bought en primeur.

If you want more information or help in deciding your best strategy, don’t hesitate to contact us – we are more than happy to help.