From the moment the grapes were picked last year, the hype has begun. For a change, the very high expectations seem justified because the weather conditions were absolutely perfect. A while ago, I found this very refreshing article - which I haven taken from the website of Jancis Robinson - that just states the naked facts. Judging by these facts, conditions have indeed been very favourable if not exceptional. Although to be fair, whether that translates into superb wines depends on the individual winemaker, as Decanter points out: there seems to be a risk of over-extraction. Nonetheless, chateaux, critics and even the wine trade are very positive, some even saying that, in 50 years they haven't seen better quality grapes.

On the Decanter "Bordeaux" microsite, you will find a wealth of information on the quality of the 2009 vintage, so I won't elaborate on it here. Instead, let's have a look at demand, at prices, at availability and ultimately, at a possible buying strategy.

Of course, we have a vested interest in the campaign. We are wine traders, we sell en primeur and we do have very good allocations of the top wines. Indeed, if you consider buying 2009 en primeur and want to do so at fair prices, we do advise you to talk to us and to follow the progress of the campaign on this blog www.dittonwinetraders.co.uk/blog.asp.

First, let's look at demand. Buying en primeur is always popular, unless it's a bad vintage or there's a lot of economic uncertainty. Last year, we had both: the wine critics were critical and uncertainty – in the midst of the worst economic downturn we have seen seen since 1945 -  was so high that many thought there wouldn't be an en primeur campaign at all. Consequently, Chateaux released at historically very low prices (110 euro's). And even those prices didn't start a buying spree, not until Robert Parker released his extremely high scores.

2009 will be different. The economic climate is much more benign and – importantly – less uncertain. Secondly, there is universal acclaim for 2009. Thirdly, Asia is starting to warm to buying en primeur, more so than ever before. I can go on and state a few more differences, but this is quite enough.  The conclusion: demand will be much higher than 2008.

Consequently, prices will be much higher as well. In 2008, most of the first growths released at 110 euro a bottle or 1,500 sterling a case ex London. No chance whatsoever we will see anything close to that. There's much talk about release prices for the first growths being similar to 2005, which was roughly 4,000 euro per case. The first trade at Liv-ex – a reliable gauge for UK prices – was 3,600 sterling. Nobody knows at this point and the economic situation might change, but I think 330 euro a bottle is the maximum Bordeaux can get away with. At that price, there will be buyers (we have quite a few orders at that level already) although it won't be a sell out. Personally, I believe release should not exceed 250 euros per bottle. That would be more than twice the 2008 level, which I feel is a fair level. And if release is at that price, demand will be massive.

There is one massive "but": Parker's scores. If Robert Parker scores in line with expectations, there is no but and all is fine. If he doesn't, the campaign might loose momentum. There is a very interesting dilemma for Mr Parker: he scored 2008 so high that, mathematically, there's hardly room to improve on for the 2009 vintage. For a more detailed analysis on this dilemma, see www.dittonwinetraders.co.uk/blogArchive.asp?mo=4&yr=2009

On to availability. In 2008, it was relatively easy to purchase what you wanted. Even on the first "tranche", there wasn't a massive scrambling – although that changed dramatically when Parker released. Still, it was only a handful of wines that leapt in price: Lafite, Carruades and to a lesser extend Latour. I expect 2009 to be different. Presuming pricing will not exceed GBP 2,600 ( euro 220 per bottle) for the first growths, demand will exceed supply. But, we think this will only hold true for Lafite, Mouton and possiby Latour. For those you would do very well to fulfil your order on the first tranche.

So, what would be a successful buying strategy? If prices are around GBP 2,500:  buy. You should buy at first tranch if you can. Concentrate on Lafite, Carruades, Duhart Milon, Mouton Rothschild and possibly Latour. If you can get allocation at first tranch, buy as much as you can. The Barons Rothschild wines and quite likely Mouton as well, will be worth picking up at second tranche.

That is, if you are investing. If you're buying to drink, 2009 looks to be worth it – provided prices stay within the stated range. Just buy your personal favourites - 2009 will be a very good if not truly exceptional vintage.

It's not your traditional investment wine. It's not even new that it receives a lot of attention. So why is this the one wine that I would recommend investing in right now?

Back in May last year, I wrote a post on our blog about Duhart Milon. I argued that it would become the next big thing after Carruades de Lafite. Here's what I wrote:

Duhart Milon, the next Carruades de Lafite?

I think it should be. There are compelling reasons for Duhart Milon to eclipse Carruades de Lafite as the next best thing that Domaine Barons Rothschild, the maker of Lafite has to offer.

What these four wines (the 4th one is L'Evangile) have in common is that they are all produced by Domaines Barons Rothschild. As such, they all bear the famous 5-arrow Rothschild family crest.

These 5 arrows are a bit of gold dust. As I'm sure you are aware of, China absolutely loves Lafite. It's the ultimate status symbol. Why this is so, nobody really knows as is apparent from Jancis Robinsons entertaining article "The Legend of Lafite". In its wake, everything else produced by Lafite basks in the same sunlight. Carruades de Lafite – a nice wine but judging by Robert Parker nothing particularly special – has reached extraordinary pricelevels, as it is considered the "Petit Lafite". With most mature vintages priced at GBP 1,200+, Carruades is as expensive as some vintages of Mouton Rothschild and Haut Brion, both first growths. Remember, Carruades is not part of the Bordeaux Crus Classes classification of 1855. As such, it is remarkable that it commands prices on par with some of the First Growths. As mentioned, the reason for this is because it bears the 5 arrow Lafite family crest.

Lafite produce more wines that are in demand in China: Caro from Argentina – a joint venture with the famous Catena family and Los Vascos from Chile are the ones that get most demand from Asia. There's also l'Evangile, a famous Pomerol priced accordingly, as you can see in above table. 

And then there's Duhart Milon. Easily outscoring Carruades and, especially since 2002 at least as good as l'Evangile, Duhart Milon is much cheaper than both of them. To me it seems Duhart Milon has so far been overlooked by the Asian market. And I think this is about to change, for 4 reasons: One, as China becomes more and more educated about wine, they will pay more and more attention to critics reviews and less to labels. Duhart having higher scores than Carruades, this should shift attention to Duhart Milon. Two, Carruades de Lafite is very dificult to find, now that a very sizeable chunck of production has been bought up by Asia. Three, I have recently been selling more and more Duhart Milon, indicating that demand is picking up. And finally (four) Duhart Milon does also bear the 5 arrow crest.

One last thought: Robert Parker actually scored the Duhart Milon 2008 at 93-95+. Does this best vintage since 2000 look like a good deal to you?

Back to January 2010. In May last year, I also included a table, comparing prices and scores between these 4 wines. Below, you will find the same table and an update on current prices.

The price increase for especially Lafite and Carruades is spectacular. Duhart Milon has also done very well, Evangile (as expected) hasn't. Fueled by continuing demand from China, all vintages of Lafite are now well over £4,000 (except 2007) whereas you can't get Carruades below £1,600. The only exception there is 2008, which I'm convinced will increase to well over £1,600 once it will become physically available, in September.

I must admit I didn't expect Carruades to get this expensive. It might still continue to increase but it would seem the upside is now limited. The opposite is true of Duhart Milon. It has taken a while for demand to increase to the point it's really driving up prices, but that process has now begun. Duhart has taken off and both Asian customers and the trade are piling into it.

Duhart Milon has a very similar label to Carruades and Lafite. It is the better wine and given that Duhart is still only 1/4 to a 1/3 of the price of Carruades, it does look a bargain. Now that demand has increased so much, supply quickly dries out and prices have but one way to go...