Fresh from the press on the first day of the En Primeur week.

I have tasted some myself. It's only Monday but fair to say 2009 so far is living up to the hype. Thanks to Twitter, I also have a lot of feedback from other tasters, and they are pretty much all very positive indeed. Also, don't forget Sauternes, which might be on par or even surpass 2001!. I have seen one note of caution from Decanter. On the whole though, superlatives galore.

But, and it's a big but: although 2009 apparently produced 15% more wine than 2008, expected first tranche allocations will be only 1/3rd of 2008, or so I have been told by one of my better Negociant suppliers. There will be bigger 2nd and 3rd tranches, but at (much) higher prices. This is going to be key. There's demand, very much so – although the pain barrier is not as high as some might think. There's very limited availability at release so anybody who get's their hands on First Growths at first tranche will likely be doing spectacularly well. If you haven't bought in previous vintages, I'd suggest not to hold your breath or be ready to pay 2nd/3rd tranche prices. We are doing everything we can to secure an allocation but so far, it's impossible to say how big it will be.

Finally, prepare for a long campaign. My prediction: earliest start beginning of May and First Growths to release mid June. Possibly even July. Bummer, I know and let's make sure the trade puts on as much pressure as possible to keep it a reasonable campaign... In terms of pricing, availability and lenghth.

To be continued...

The Big Bordeaux En Primeur Tasting Circus is now only one week away. Officially that is, because there has been a lot of wooing, tasting and dealmaking going on already. The grand opening though will be the last week of March and soon after that, you can expect the first tasting notes and buy/sell mating dances.

I suppose it’s normal in vintages like this one but I still can’t get used to it. Everybody wants it. Now. Even before scores are published, prices are released and before indeed allocations are known. Why? Because history has proven that an early purchase of a great vintage will, over time, generate massive returns. Some more than others, but on the whole, this is true. If you want to know more about this vintage, look here and here.

Moreover, there is a substantial demand from wine investments companies who want to have a share of it. Some of which are new, some established. Today, I heard somebody say that 4 years ago, there were 25 UK based wine investment companies. Now, he said, there are 150. Understandable for sure because wine has, historically but also recently, proved a good investment. But when there’s so much new demand, that’s when I become a bit wary. What is it that the stockbrokers say? When the new money goes in, the old money goes out or something like that? I know the wine market is different and I know the fundamentals that make demand exceed supply are very sound. I'm not calling the top or anything but I do start to get this uncomfortable feeling.

I just hope that the Chateaux and customers will be sensible. The most expensive vintage so far, at release, has been the 2005. Lafite (ex Chateau) released at 300 euro a bottle and Latour even at 350. Per case of 12, this translates into euro 3,600 and 4,200 per case of 12. At that time, the exchange rate was roughly 1.45 euro to the pound so converted into sterling, release prices ex Chateau were GBP 2,500 and GBP 2,900. Now, the exchange rate is 1.10... So that means that if Bordeaux releases at 2005 prices, for UK customers this would be the most expensive vintage ever, by a mile: GBP 3,300 for Lafite and 3,800 for Latour. And don't forget, the 2005's are still trading below their previous high, unlike any other vintage if I'm not mistaken.

Let’s have a closer look at release prices over the years. I have taken Lafite as the example (all prices ex Chateau, per case of 12/75 cl and in euro’s). Source: Liv-ex.

There is a reason why 2008 was relatively cheap: the economy didn't seem to support higher prices. Indeed, even at these relatively low prices, take up was disappointing. The campaign was saved only because of very high Parker scores and then just for the most prestigious names. Will 2009 be different?

The US is still unlikely to buy. See for example Gary Vaynerchuck's comments as posted on Decanter: http://www.decanter.com/news/292884.html. Also, Chateau & Estate, the single biggest en primeur buyer, ceased trading. True, Asia will happily step in its footsteps but won't fill the void. And as to the economy, it's hardly a healthy investment climate, is it? On the upside, there's far less uncertainty about the global economic and investment climate outlook than this time last year. Year on year, wine prices have firmed substantially and the outlook is positive. This in itself warrants higher prices than 2008. But how much higher?

Another, very important gauge is Robert Parker's scores. However, for 2008 the comparison is flawed because Parker scored 2008 after release (very unusual) so we can't really use release prices to this purpose. Parker scored Lafite 2008 at 98-100, the near perfect score. Just after he published these scores, the price for Lafite went up to roughly GBP 2,100 or 2,500 euro per case. Roughly equal to the 2007 release price... The interesting situation occurs that Parker's scores for the 2009 vintage can't possibly be higher than 2008 as 2008 was superlative and, mathematically, can hardly be improved on. The other wine critics don't agree – they were less positive on 2008 and are united in their praise for 2009. But you know what?  That won't affect prices at all as the only wine critic that does influence prices is Robert Parker.

So, what's the verdict on the 2009 then? It will be a very good vintage, in some cases even a great vintage. The hype is there but I don't think Parker will be able to score 2009 much better than 2008, if at all. There is certainly more speculative demand than last year and there is less uncertainty.  However, the economy is not out of the woods yet and global demand for en primeur has not improved. Moreover, prices have been increasing so rapidly, indeed spiking, that the market would be served very well by moderate pricing. If not, I fear a manic spike only to end in the bubble bursting... Overall, I think prices will be higher than 2008 and they can be. However, if the Chateaux decide to release at prices close to 2005, let alone higher than that, demand will be subdued and indeed, 2008 might look a good deaI.. I hope the first tranche release will be between 2005 and 2008 prices, let's say euro 2,500 a case. This will get demand going and any subsequent tranches might be selling (significantly) higher.

Ultimately though, the name of the game will be to be able to secure first tranche allocation and failing that, any allocation.I will be in Bordeaux next week, to taste the wine but more importantly, to taste the atmosphere, to get a feel for the market and to tighten relations with our suppliers. I will keep you posted – here and through Twitter: @DittonWineTrade.

Up until the Chinese New Year – which started on February 14th - this year has been a rollercoaster. Massive demand, prices increasing rapidly across the board and hardly time to follow up. Apart from Asia, the UK wine investment companies were particularly active, buying the usual suspects but also taking position on seemingly undervalued First Growths and/or vintages. After the 14th though, there was a 10 day lull which, at the end made you think that the market had finally decided that enough was enough.

Not so. Buyers are back with a vengeance. Price increases, if anything, are accelerating. Particularly for Lafite and as ever, Carruades de Lafite. It seems potty and out of control – Lafite 2000 for example now trading at a whopping 16,000 pounds where it was close to 13,000 only 2 months ago. But cases get snapped up as soon as they’re offered. Interestingly, demand and prices for the other First Growths are also on the up. It becomes more and more apparent that – as demand continues to outstrip supply - stock is becoming increasingly difficult to find. And you know what that means... bad news for people who actually like to drink their wine...

In the meantime, the focus is slowly shifting towards Bordeaux, for the 2009 vintage. At the end of this month, the winetrade will descend on Bordeaux to taste the barrel samples and to try and wrestle allocations out of the Negociants. I don’t expect any fireworks until the end of May though, quite likely even the beginning of June – the Chateaux won’t repeat last year's mistake of releasing pre-Parker. Even so, April and May will be filled with speculation, dealmaking and even sales. That’s right, sales. The 2009 is already being sold, as we speak, which to my knowledge is a novelty.

Nevertheless, the window from now until the end of May is an interesting one. With demand from Asia slightly easing off after their New Year frenzy and the En Primeur activity not yet fully started, this might be a good time to pick up your favourites at a decent price. Sorry, that should read slightly less outrageous price. Merchants are likely to value cash over profit in order to build a warchest for the upcoming primeur campaign. So do the Negociants in Bordeaux for whom it’s imperative to have enough cash to buy into the new vintage. Private stockholders might want to cash in the profit on their existing cases in order to take advantage of a new (and very exciting) investment opportunity. Don’t expect prices to fall though – it’s just not that kind of market right now – but they might be relatively stable and therefore negotiable.

On a different note, you might have noticed that we have included a small selection of "super Italians" to our list. Personally, I have always been fascinated by the top Italians from especially Barolo and Tuscany. They are magnificent wines. Demand for them was always confined to connoisseurs and for some obscure reason, the USA. Recently though, there has been increasing interest from other places, causing Sassicaia, Ornellaia and the top Barolo's to take off.

Finally, do not hesitate to get in touch with us. Be it to pick our brain on the wine market, to discuss en primeur buying strategies or to source your favourite wine to drink - we are very happy to help and share our views.