Guest blog by Gavin Quinney (@GavinQuinney). 

This report was originally posted on the Liv-ex blog. Gavin has kindly allowed us to post this follow up on his excellent report on the Bordeaux 2010 weather. Gavin is a local winegrower in Bordeaux. He has been writing the annual Bordeaux "en primeur report" for Harpers Wine & Spirit magazine. Gavin has also tasted all the top wines from Bordeaux en primeur for 10 years and has been following these up in bottle. Do check out his blog for lots of excellent, factual information.

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There’s an embarrassment of riches in the best barrel cellars of Bordeaux right now. The relatively inexpensive 2008s are being shipped out (the first tranche offer of 100€ ex-cellars for First Growths in April 2009 seems a long time ago), leaving row upon row of French oak barriques bearing the precious, pre-paid 2009 vintage. And, currently being assembled in the ‘first year’ cellars, there’s another great vintage waiting in line.

 

Time will tell if Lilian Barton Sartorius was right when she said at the start of the harvest, “However well the 2010s turn out, they are going to be cheaper than the 2009s.” At the time I nodded sagely in agreement, but now, following an outstanding harvest and with more names being touted as the next big thing in China, I’m not so sure. Meanwhile, a few wise old heads are keeping shtum about 2010 as they want their wines to do the talking in the spring. Nobody wants to hear about another vintage of the century. At least, not just yet.

 

After concerns that he would be unable to travel following knee surgery, Robert Parker has indicated that he will be coming to taste the new vintage next month. Significantly, his friend Michel Rolland, the renowned consultant oenologist, believes that most estates that he works with have made, er, better wines in 2010 than in 2009. And for those who prefer wines at the other end of the structure spectrum, Denis Dubourdieu quietly agrees – for reds and dry whites anyway.

 
Chateau Margaux, Harvest 2010

 

I tasted the 2009s again recently at many of the top estates on the Left Bank, and if 2010 is at the same quality level as 2009, it’s a hard act to follow. The 2009s are exuberant, opulent and delicious to taste even now, but what of the other side of the cellar of l’embarras des richesses - the 2010s? The 2010s appear to be more classically Bordeaux-like, but with tremendous power and intensity. I’d call them über-classic, for want of a better expression. The buzz word for the 2009s at this same stage last year was ‘exceptional’ – see my 2009 harvest report. We’ll probably hear a lot more of ‘classic’, ‘intense’, extraordinary’ and ‘balanced’ in reference to 2010.

 

Jean Guillaume Prats of Cos d’Estournel explains: “Speaking for Cos and not for the others in the Medoc, the 2010 is in the same league as the 2009 but in a completely opposite and different style. 2010 is an extraordinary classic Medoc vintage. A year of drought, of course, and the driest in the last ten years, but nothing like 2003 when there was exposure to so much heat. It was a late vintage and rain on the 4^th October in the north of the Medoc helped the Cabernet Sauvignon to extraordinary phenolic ripeness. Beautiful weather followed for picking the Cabernet.”

 
Jean Guillaume Prats, Cos

 

Jean René Matignon, the technical director of Pichon Baron, agrees, summing up 2010 as ‘un grand millésime de garde par excellence’. He believes yields are generally around ten per cent lower than in 2009 around Pauillac (i.e. in St-Julien and St-Estephe also), in part due to poor flowering in older Merlot vines, as well as smaller berries with less juice from the near-drought conditions. Lilian Barton told me that they only made four tanks of Merlot, compared to six the previous year, for the same reason. The quality of the Merlot, though, is ‘magnifique’, according to Matignon, whose final blend will be 77 per cent Cabernet Sauvignon and 23 per cent Merlot – compared to 67 per cent and 33 per cent in 2009. That’s a significant shift, and if that doesn’t suggest a wine for longer ageing, then the near-record levels of tannin, however ripe, certainly do.

 

There will undoubtedly be concerns, as in 2009, over the high levels of alcohol on both banks – especially for the Merlot, so it’s a bigger issue on the Right Bank. What is noticeable, though, is the higher acidity than in 2009, giving the wines freshness and balance. The 2010s are very deeply coloured, which is no surprise given the dry conditions and levels of concentration. (I wouldn’t be surprised if some malolactic fermentations struggle to be complete in time for Parker’s visit.)

 

Steve Blais, who works with Michel Rolland and has clients around the world, believes that 2010 – being a later harvest than 2009 – plays to the strengths of Bordeaux. He works with Malescot St-Exupery in Margaux and many chateaux in Pomerol and St-Emilion.

 

“It works best here when there’s a slow, even maturity of the grapes. In theory, not too hot and longer is good, but the problem with later vintages is that we get autumn rain. The weather we had over the harvest in 2010 was almost perfect, so we could wait.

 

“Maybe we’ll see that some estates have terroirs that were just too dry, but many chateaux, like those with clay over limestone, should have made great wines. The 2010s have lower PH (higher acidity), less jammy fruit and incredible freshness. The more samples we taste in the lab, the better I think it is than 2009. Sorry, but it’s true. Don’t forget the vineyards that ripen later either – I have clients in places like Blaye where the wines are tasting extremely good.”

 

This is the clear message from many of the 'lesser' appellations. Yorick Lavaud, who sources the wine for Rothschild's Mouton Cadet brand and manages 1,200 hectares of vines, was adamant that 2010 is a better vintage than 2009, especially for Merlot.

 
Mouton Rothschild, 13th Oct 2010

 

2010 is also an excellent vintage for dry whites and for Sauternes, so if you’re planning on coming to the April trade tastings, make sure you fit them in to your schedule. On that note, I’d suggest you don’t try to cram too much in, too quickly. There’s a lot to take in, and the wines will be quite demanding.

 

Let’s hope the proprietors aren’t.

Guest blog by Gavin Quinney (@GavinQuinney). 

This report was originally posted on the Liv-ex blog. Gavin has kindly allowed us to post this excellent report on the 2010 weather. Gavin is a local winegrower in Bordeaux. He has been writing the annual Bordeaux "en primeur report" for Harpers Wine & Spirit magazine. Gavin has also tasted all the top wines from Bordeaux en primeur for 10 years and has been following these up in bottle. Do check out his blog for lots of excellent, factual information.

The en primeur tasting week will be the first week of April. It is still a good 3 months away before the campaign really starts going and as such, it may be a tat early to start writing about 2010. On the other hand, media coverage is likely to be hotting up and invariably, there will be a lot of speculation on the quality of the vintage. So that you can form your own opinion on this matter, we wanted to share Gavin's findings. Based on facts, with lots of graphs (I love graphs).

• 2010 was a very dry year.
• 2010 was sunny...
• ...but not too hot.
• Uneven flowering, lower yields?
• Top terroirs shine, again.
• Rain in the nick of time.
• A later harvest (than 2009 and 2005).
• Harvest ‘à la carte’.

2010 was a very dry year

I live 15 miles east of Bordeaux and 15 miles south-west of St-Emilion, between the Garonne and Dordogne rivers. Bordeaux is a vast wine region and the weather can vary significantly from one end to the other. It’s fair to say, though, that 2010 was a dry year across all areas. 

 
Throughout the growing season, from April to October, we had less than half the rainfall than in 2009 – itself a dry year. 2010 was an exceptionally dry year, and not just at the business end of the season from June through to the harvest. There was less rain in March compared to the average, then very low rainfall in April and May, leaving a shortage of water reserves before the summer had even begun.

2010 was sunny...

  
2010 saw a fairly similar return to 2009 and 2005 from July to September (when the fruit ripens) and the sunshine continued into October, which was when most of the top reds were picked. Note the differences between these great years and other recent vintages – differences which are reflected in the wines.

But not too hot

 
There was plenty of sunshine in 2010 but it wasn’t particularly hot which, given the near drought conditions, was a relief. May was much cooler than the 30-year average (14.2ËšC  v 15.4ËšC), June warmer (18.6ËšC v 18.3ËšC), and July warmer still (21.7ËšC v 21ËšC), while August was a shade cooler (20ËšC v 21ËšC), as was September.
 
It’s been said that Bordeaux will become too hot for Merlot and Cabernet with the changing climate. These graphs seem to show that it’s not rising temperatures, but a shortage of rainfall that could be more of a concern for the vast majority of growers that don’t have perfect terroirs.

Late start, then uneven flowering

 
A sunny April, then a hot streak in late May, followed by a cold snap, probably confused the vines. Rain in the first half of June didn’t help at this critical time, so the flowering was mixed. The Merlot, which is more vulnerable to poor fruit set, was inconsistent from one parcel to another, and often from one vine to another – a result of coulure and millerandage. This was evident on both banks. Old timers also said that as there were many larger bunches, the flowering was poor – ‘the bigger the bunches the lower the yield’.

Top terroirs shine, again

 
After rain in mid-June, it was a dry old time in the vines throughout the summer. By the end of August, there were clear signs of stress in many vineyards through lack of water. Merlot leaves in many parcels from Margaux to Pomerol were wilting, and younger vines suffered.

Rain in the nick of time

 
Light rain in early September provided welcome moisture (the ‘before and after’ effect on the leaves in vineyards like Le Pin was clear) and further showers around the 24th and the 29th had a positive effect, as did quite heavy rain on the 4th of October. In between, and on into mid-October, it was clear and sunny. 

A later harvest (than 2009 and 2005)

Harvest ‘à la carte’

Decanter published below article on their website today. From our own sales, we can confirm there is clearly a widening demand for Bordeaux. Top sellers for us have been Ducru Beaucaillou, Lynch Bages, Pontet Canet, Beychevelle, Cantemerle, La Mission Haut Brion, Leoville Lascases and Pichon Lalande to name a few. We also think that it's a matter of time before demand for Burgundy will increase even further, as well as for Barolo and Tuscany's top producers. This is a logical consequence of both drinkers and investors looking for value for money and is a healthy development.

Savvy' Chinese buyers looking beyond Bordeaux

• Monday 14 February 2011 
• by Richard Woodard
• Be the first to comment

Chinese fine wine consumers are diversifying beyond Bordeaux and buying an ever wider range of wines from Burgundy and the New World, local merchants say.

The Wall street Journal posted this article on their website today:

Acker Merrall & Condit                      Bottles of 1985 Henri Jayer Richebourg: Is 2011 Burgundy’s breakout year in Asia? 

After Bordeaux wines fetched sky-high auction prices last year in Hong Kong, it seemed like France’s other top region — Burgundy — was getting neglected. But this year might be Burgundy’s time to shine. 

Early reviews of the 2009 vintage of Burgundy are in — critics began tasting late last year — and the verdict is good: According to the London-based dealer Bordeaux Index, the 2009 vintage is “the most forward and generous one over the past decade.” And the WSJ’s London-based wine writer Will Lyons was giving the vintage high praise in a recent column:

Click here for the full article in WSJ.

You may have noticed that we hardly sell any Burgundy. We are in the process though of building up our network and list. If we can offer at the same competitive prices you are accustomed to from us, and if we can source the most sought after wines, we will be offering them to you. Watch this space!

Partly. Subscribers to erobertparker.com will have received this message from Robert Parker in their inbox this weekend:

Dear eRobertParker.com Subscriber:

I am thrilled to announce that Antonio Galloni will have expanded responsibilities for The Wine Advocate and www.eRobertParker.com as of February 1, 2011. I would like to take credit for my powers of persuasion over recent years in trying to convince Antonio of the virtues of covering additional wine regions, but if truth be known, the writing was always on the wall that his enviable talents and passion for this field would ultimately prevail, and the beneficiaries are the world's wine consumers.

Antonio will continue to focus on the wines of Italy as well as Champagne, but two new areas of responsibility for Antonio will include the red and white Burgundies of the Côte d'Or as well as the crisp white wines of Chablis, and the wines of California. These vast regions will benefit from the increased depth of coverage, as will all the major wine regions of the world.

Additionally, sectors that merit dramatically more attention but have not had sufficient coverage, including Beaujolais and the Mâconnais (now economically as important as the Cote d'Or and Chablis) will be put under a microscope by David Schildknecht, who will continue with his other areas of responsibility but will be freed from covering the Cote d'Or and Chablis.

I will turn to something I have long played around with in The Wine Advocate but have rarely had enough time to do. Older readers may remember the vintage retrospectives called "What About Now?" With Antonio turning his attention to California, I am going to begin a series of horizontal and vertical tastings of perfectly stored California wines that will give readers insight into how they are developing. It has been a long-term ambition of mine to include more reports on older vintages, and this change will allow me to do this not only in California, but also to increase the older vintage reports for Bordeaux and the Rhône Valley.

In all other respects, the staff assignments at The Wine Advocate remain identical. I hope all of you share our great enthusiasm for the fact that Antonio Galloni has finally taken the plunge and will be devoting most of his time to his wine writing career, a job for which he seems particularly well-suited and sure to excel.

All the best in wine and life,
Robert M. Parker, Jr.

P.S. The Wine Advocate writer assignments are:
Robert Parker – Bordeaux, the Rhône Valley, older vintages of Bordeaux, Rhône and California wines
Antonio Galloni – Italy, Champagne, Chablis, Côte d'Or, California
David Schildknecht – Germany, Loire, Beaujolais and Mâconnais, Eastern U.S., Austria,
Eastern Europe, Languedoc-Roussillon, Jura
Jay Miller – Oregon, Washington, South America, Spain
Lisa Perrotti – Brown – Australia, New Zealand
Neal Martin – Critic-at-Large overlapping all areas, plus specific reviewer of South Africa
Mark Squires – Bulletin Board supervision and occasional articles on Israel, Portugal, and Greece

I can hardly think of any other single most important influencing factor on Bordeaux prices than Robert Parker. Whilst he will remain reviewing Bordeaux, Antonio Galloni has seemed to be heir apparent for a while now. I might be totally wrong and jumping the gun big time, but I do wonder whether this is the first step in weening us off of Mr Parker and introducing a new voice. 

It therefore is very interesting to see what effect – if any – this change will have on scores and prices of those wines that Antonio Galloni rather than Robert Parker will now review. I will also be looking out for what other wine traders make of this change and, if informative, I will report back.

A recent IMF working paper has generated wide-ranging debate on wine investment , both from within the trade and, interestingly, a number of opinion-forming media, such as the Financial Times or the Economist newspaper online, as-well-as trade actors, Liv-ex, the fine wine exchange and the drinks business, a publishing company.

Two recurring themes have emerged in these debates, the value of wine as an alternative investment and whether or not extreme price fluctuations among commodities remains supply-side, that is climatic conditions, scarcity and Parker points, or has become demand-driven, ‘a recent phenomena’.

Something that is not quite so apparent in these debates is that the paper’s brief, in fact, was to analyse the factors contributing to price-formation – in the shape of extreme price fluctuations over the last two decades – by comparing two very distinct commodities, and not to look for a correlation between oil and fine wine, per se. 

Where fine wine is explicitly referred to as a potential alternative investment asset, the paper concludes that this is a particularly interesting question.

Modern portfolios would typically consist of stocks and bonds and would not have substantial exposure to commodities. The value of fine wine as a diversifier in this context is not being questioned at all. Indeed, one of the most notable findings is by how much the respective commodity prices came off in the sudden turbulence of 2008: oil by 70% as compared to fine wine by 42%.  This is further illustrated in the FT article, which reports that, according to the paper’s findings, a 4% reduction in industrial output in emerging market economies would induce a 22% fall in real oil prices and a 15% decline in fine wine prices. 

Whereas, if the IMF and the Economist economists are correct and fine wine has started to behave like other commodities, i.e. it is exposed to macroeconomic shocks; it is not derivatised and therefore has to be inherently less risky. Each of the above observations support this theory, that fine wine is less volatile than oil or other commodities and, therefore, is an appropriate tool for portfolio diversification.

In our view, all the recent data does suggest that fine wine is a worthy diversifier because it is not positively correlated with stocks and bonds and it’s less volatile than other commodities.