Fine wine prices could rise 14% this year

"Fine wine prices could rise 14% this year." Headline news on Decanter’s website this morning – coming from The Wine Investment Fund’s investment manager, and former government economist, Chris Smith. He predicts a worst-case scenario of a fall of 5% this year in the Liv-Ex 100, with a rise of 25% “well within the bounds of possibility.”

 

Economic environment, a dismal En Primeur Campaign, and a high level of net sales by professional asset managers were the three main factors, according to Smith, which caused last year’s downturn in the wine market, with conditions now appearing much brighter. 

Smith gives 3 main reasons for optimism in 2013: The falls in 2012 took place in the first half of the year, with the second half of the year seeing a return to stability and some recovery; Prices have fallen to below trend, potentially allowing for a sharp recovery; And, the institutional sales have fallen away. (Click here to read the full article).

“We believe that now may prove to be as good a time to enter the market as we have seen since 2009,” Smith said. We’re inclined to agree with Smith, particularly because “the risk profile of the market compares much more favourably to recent years.”

To add to this, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed at its highest point yesterday since August 2011. In the past, there has been a correlation between this index and fine wine prices as measured by the Liv-Ex 100.  Interestingly, the Liv-ex 100 now is 32% lower than it was in August 2011, suggesting that – if the correlation still exists –  the Liv-Ex 100 has some catching up to do.

The Liv-Ex 100

Should you agree that now may prove to be as good a time to enter the market as we have seen since 2009, please see below for some recommendations that look particularly attractive.

 

Hermitage La Chapelle 2010 – £540/ case (6x75)

96+ Robert Parker

(2009 market price £700/ case – 97 Robert Parker)

 

Guigal La Mouline 2005 – £2,500/ case (6x75)

100 Robert Parker

(1999 market price £3,250 – 100 Robert Parker)

 

Pontet Canet 2010 – £1,295/ case (12x75)

96-100 Robert Parker

(2009 market price £1,550 – 100 Robert Parker)

 

If you require full tasting notes, or more information, please do not hesitate to ask.  Alternatively, please do get in touch to discuss any needs you might have.

Wines offered subject to availability.

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Ditton Wine Traders buy and sell fine wine.

The finest wine, at the very lowest prices. For drinking & investment; for both Private and Trade customers.

Ditton Wine Traders are exactly that, wine traders. Since 2004, we have bought & sold fine wine on a daily basis, at fair and competitive prices.

The prices you see on the website are the prices you pay – with no hidden extras. The advice is free here too. We do everything possible to make sure we keep our costs down. There is no shop – we use the phone and email. We don’t employ a lot of staff and we don’t have a swanky London office.

As a result, we are able to operate on a much lower margin than many of our competitors. Our ever increasing network of negociants, distributors, wholesalers, retailers and private stock-holders means we will frequently bring you ‘impossible to match’ deals. We specialize in the best wine from Bordeaux, as well as a fast growing list of the most sought after wines from Burgundy, Champagne and Italy.