I hate to say we told you so

But I will anyway.

 

The dip in the market has been deeper (25% or so on average) and longer than most expected, but fine wine prices have stopped falling and indeed are moving up again.

Prices as measured daily by the Liv-ex 50 have been steadily increasing since December last year:

Liv-ex 50 is moving up steadily

This has resulted in the Liv-ex 100 – the most widely quoted benchmark of fine wine prices – also changing direction:

That was the year that... wasnt!

So, if the conspiracy theorists out there are correct, we might not even make it to Christmas this year, with the world due to end in just a few days time… 

Reflecting on this, we wondered how the wine trade would fare without its customers, should there indeed be none remaining by January.

Having endured just about the worst en primeur campaign ever seen, the Bordelais would probably notice little change. After all, there were very few buyers for the 2011’s, so a dozen fewer probably wouldn’t make a huge difference…

june market update

The last 12 months have been challenging for the fine wine market. The fall in prices that started in July 2011 has continued after a brief despite at the beginning of the year. This has resulted in the Liv-ex 100 falling 27% in 1 year time.

Livex 100

Fine Wine Prices – latest news

Last Saturday, Christie’s held its first Hong Kong wine auction since 2001. After a series of disappointing results in recent auctions by other houses, it’s good to see that demand is still there. Christie’s fetched US $ 4m on a pre-sale estimate of US $ 3.2m with 94% of lots sold. That is a very encouraging result, no doubt helped by some very rare vintages of Latour, ex cellar, bought by Francois Pinault in 1993.

Prices seem to bottom out

There are more and more signs that the recent, steep fall in prices is starting to halt. Whilst volume of trade in especially October was low, we see that more and more buyers are bargain hunting at the new prices levels. Where 2 weeks ago stock was being offered cheaply without finding a buyer, we now see more and more of the same stock being snapped up and even slightly increasing in price again. There's an interesting article on this in Decanter, with views from various people in the trade.

Market update

To add some more background to yesterday's blog entry, Decanter have asked Liv-ex to comment on price developments. Here's what they say: "Fine wine prices hit new low". Interestingly, Liv-ex see that prices have more or less stabilized in the last 2 weeks, after the very steep drop in October. Personally, I think we have not seen the bottom quite yet although we can't be too far off. The latest auction by Hart, Davis Hart in Chicago, on November 1st, shows encouraging sell through rates, with only 8 lots out of 1,128 remaining unsold.

Fine Wine Market catches up with Financial Markets

In the last few weeks, we have seen Fine Wine Prices coming down rather rapidly. Reuters have just published an interesting article on this, "Global credit crisis puts damper on wine prices". Auction houses see their sell-through rates dropping and prices as compared to only 6 weeks ago are significantly down. When looking at the Livex 100, the widely quoted Fine Wine Price Index, we see a drop of 16% from the high in August.

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