Today we can offer probably the most anticipated release of the campaign: Château Lafite. At £1400 IB per case of 6 bottles, this is the least expensive quality vintage on the market by some margin. Physical vintages of comparable quality are offered from £1600 per case of 6 bottles (2012) to £2600 per case of 6 bottles (2008).
But I will anyway.
The dip in the market has been deeper (25% or so on average) and longer than most expected, but fine wine prices have stopped falling and indeed are moving up again.
Prices as measured daily by the Liv-ex 50 have been steadily increasing since December last year:
This has resulted in the Liv-ex 100 – the most widely quoted benchmark of fine wine prices – also changing direction:
"Fine wine prices could rise 14% this year." Headline news on Decanter’s website this morning – coming from The Wine Investment Fund’s investment manager, and former government economist, Chris Smith. He predicts a worst-case scenario of a fall of 5% this year in the Liv-Ex 100, with a rise of 25% “well within the bounds of possibility.”
Following recent speculation that the market has either hit the bottom, or is indeed very close to the bottom, we decided to take a look further into this.
Lots of charts, graphs, data etc – and if you are interested to find out why now is the time to buy, and exactly what you should be buying, please read on, because the results below are very positive.
The Bordeaux 2011 En Primeur campaign will start shortly. Next week, the trade will go and taste the wines but this week, several wine critics have already done so. Robert Parker, who said on Twitter that he had no interest in the 2011 vintage before going out to Bordeaux, has also tasted the new vintage.
After 6 months of continuous falls in price, the market now seems to have turned a corner. The Liv-ex 50 has stopped its decline and is indeed edging back up.
On a longer and more important timescale, this is reflected in the Liv-ex 100 as well:
As you will know from our previous blogposts, the EU and India have been trying to reach consensus on signing a Free Trade Agreement, which could have a significant impact on the (fine) wine industry. Hopes were high that, after 4 years of negotiating, an agreement would be signed last week.
Can we expect a boom in Indian fine wine imports?
There has been an avalanche of reports in the media lately, social media included, about falling demand for Bordeaux wine. Often suggesting that China has fallen out of love with Bordeaux, that it would now be all about Burgundy and that Bordeaux wine prices have but one way to go: South.
It seems to be fashionable these days to engage in a bit of “Bordeaux Bashing”. “Bordeaux would be out of fashion. Grossly overpriced. The bubble has burst. Nobody wants overpriced Bordeaux. Burgundy, even Rhone and Italy is what people want. Sell sell sell”.